000
ABPZ20 KNHC 100502
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 9 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN