000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090501
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU AUG 8 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
HURRICANE HENRIETTE...LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. FUTURE ADVISORIES ON HENRIETTE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
REMAIN DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HENRIETTE WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPA33 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
HENRIETTE WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA23 PHFO AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP3.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN