000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081735
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 8 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HENRIETTE...LOCATED FAR TO THE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE 
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A 
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN