000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081131
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU AUG 8 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HENRIETTE...LOCATED FAR TO THE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT 
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 1500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN