000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021742
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GIL...LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IF
HURRICANE GIL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WEST OF 140W LATER TODAY...AND FURTHER
INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS ISSUED
BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY