000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021151
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GIL...LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA...CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF HURRICANE GIL
WEAKENS OR THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS INCREASES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY POORLY
ORGANIZED...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY