000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012347
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 1 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GIL...LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE AFTER THAT TIME.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 1400 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN