000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222342
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
IN A DAY OR TWO DUE TO THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE
TO THE EAST.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
ERRATICALLY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN