000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280550
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY DECREASED EARLIER TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...
THEN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM
COULD OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WOULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND
INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING 
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A WESTWARD-DRIFTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN