000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272332
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAVE DECREASED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS
STILL BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.  IF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND
INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE BEING NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG