000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271736
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO. IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN