000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030543
TWOEP 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 2 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO LAND
ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN