000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022353
TWOEP 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 2 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA
MEXICO HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM AT ANY TIME...BUT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER COOLER WATERS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG