000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121740
TWOEP 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 12 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT
1400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA