000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151157
TWOEP 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN