000 ABPZ20 KNHC 300531 TWOEP TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 29 2009 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE....30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN