000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221132
TWOEP 
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
435 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. EVEN THOUGH
THIS SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT.  HOWEVER...ANY
FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 1070 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA