000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212341
TWOEP 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1725 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE A LITTLE LESS CONCENTRATED THAN EARLIER TODAY...ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.  SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE