000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211732
TWOEP 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. 
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. 
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA