000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091739
TWOEP 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 9 2009

CORRECTED TO ADD PROBABILITY IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING.  IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. 
THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. 
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH