000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031743
TWOEP 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL
BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15
MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS