000
ABPZ20 KNHC 140537
TWOEP 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CARLOS...LOCATED ABOUT 1455 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH