000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211740
TWOEP 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE
FORMING.  ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER
TODAY.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THIS REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH