000 ABPZ20 KNHC 211453 TWOEP SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 755 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED... BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY... WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH