000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211135
TWOEP 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
EXTEND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM
DRIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS
IN THIS REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A DISORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH