000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181148
TWOEP 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
MAY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. 
WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG