000
ACPN50 PHFO 161156
TWOCP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI AUG 16 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI 
CONTINUES TO SHOWN SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING...AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTING 
NEAR THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS 
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 
OF KAUAI IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MPH. OUTFLOW FROM THE DEVELOPING 
SYSTEM DESCRIBED ABOVE IS MAKING CONDITIONS LESS CONDUCIVE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED OVER 
THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF HILO HAWAII IS 
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST 
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY 
MORNING.

$$

BIRCHARD