000
ABNT20 KNHC 050525
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands are gradually becoming better organized. Satellite data
indicate that this system is already producing winds near tropical
storm force. There is a strong likelihood that a tropical depression
or tropical storm will form within the next few days while the
disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity and a few
squalls.  Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
during the next couple of days while it meanders over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development, heavy rains
associated with this disturbance are likely over portions of eastern
Mexico during the remainder of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi