000
ABNT20 KNHC 191415
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized
this morning in association with an area of low pressure located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.  In addition, satellite data
and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become a
little better defined.  Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for additional development, only a small
increase in the organization of the low could result in the
formation of a tropical depression. This system is expected to move
slowly and erratically during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi