000
ABNT20 KNHC 191154
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have continued to increase overnight in
association with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea.  However, the shower and thunderstorm activity
continues to remain disorganized, and surface pressures have not
fallen any further.  Upper-level winds are expected to be only
marginally conducive for development over the next couple of days.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to be more
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
still form early next week while the low moves slowly and
erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain