000
ABNT20 KNHC 190500
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased somewhat in association
with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea this evening.  However the shower and thunderstorm activity is
disorganized, and surface pressures are not falling.  Upper-level
winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development
over the next couple of days.  After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to be more conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could still form early next
week while the low moves slowly and erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch