000
ABNT20 KNHC 210501
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure centered a little more than 200 miles
east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas is moving slowly
northward.  Although the thunderstorm activity continues to be
limited, there is still an opportunity for this system to become a
subtropical or tropical cyclone later today before it merges with an
approaching cold front well offshore of the United States east coast
Friday night. Moisture from this system is still causing locally
heavy rains along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides
over portions of Hispaniola.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila