000
ABNT20 KNHC 191120
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 250 miles
northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands.  Cloudiness and
thunderstorms associated with this system are currently located
well east of the center due to strong upper-level westerly winds.
However, upper-level conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for this system to acquire some tropical characteristics,
and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form within the
next couple of days.  The low is forecast to move northward today
and turn north-northwestward on Thursday, before turning
north-northeastward and merging with a cold front over the western
Atlantic by the weekend. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that
was scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon has been
canceled. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the northern
Leeward Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart