000
ABNT20 KNHC 272327
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A strong tropical wave is located about 250 miles east of Barbados.
This disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force,
and the associated thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization.  Conditions are expected to be favorable for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form tonight or Wednesday.  The system is moving westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and is expected to pass over the
Windward Islands on Wednesday morning, and move over the
southeastern Caribbean Sea late Wednesday and Thursday.  An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system again on Wednesday morning.

Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, Bonaire,
Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South America
should monitor the progress of this disturbance, and consult
products issued by your national meteorological service, which
could include tropical storm warnings or watches.  Regardless of
whether the system is a tropical wave or a tropical cyclone, heavy
rains and tropical-storm-force winds in squalls are expected to
spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern
Leeward Islands, beginning tonight and continuing through
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico is associated with a trough of low
pressure that is drifting westward.  Upper-level winds are not
expected to be conducive for significant development before this
system moves inland over Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch