000
ABNT20 KNHC 271146
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a
well-organized tropical wave located about 475 miles east-southeast
of Barbados. However, the low appears to lack a closed circulation
at this time. Environmental conditions are favorable for continued
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form
later today or tonight while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should
monitor the progress of this disturbance, since warnings and watches
could be required at any time. Regardless of whether the system is a
tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy rains and wind gusts to
tropical storm force are expected to spread over the Windward
Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles, beginning
tonight and continuing into Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is
drifting westward.  Upper-level winds are not expected to be
conducive for significant development before this system moves
inland over Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown