000
ABNT20 KNHC 161742
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Julia, located offshore of the South Carolina coast, and on
Tropical Storm Karl, located several hundred miles west-northwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands.  The National Hurricane Center has issued
the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian, located several
hundred miles east-northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

An elongated area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico near the Upper Texas coast.  The associated shower
and thunderstorm activity shows some signs of organization.
However, surface observations in the area show no indication that a
tropical cyclone is forming.  Any additional development of this
system should be slow to occur before it moves inland over
southeastern Texas by tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A tropical wave moving off of the coast of Africa into the far
eastern Atlantic is currently accompanied by disorganized shower
activity.  Some development of this system is possible before
conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation by
the middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward
over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven