000
ABNT20 KNHC 132349
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda.

Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that
an area of low pressure is located just inland near St. Augustine,
Florida.  This system continues to produce a large area of showers
and thunderstorms, with winds to tropical storm force along and just
offshore of portions of the northeast Florida coast. This system
has been maintaining its organization through the afternoon and
early evening, and advisories will likely be initiated later this
evening. The low is expected to move north-northwestward to
northward at 10 to 15 mph tonight, near and parallel to the
northeast coast of Florida. Strong gusty winds, some to tropical
storm force, will continue over portions of the northeast Florida
coast tonight, and heavy rains will continue to spread over central
and northern Florida tonight and Wednesday. Some areas from
northeast Florida to South Carolina could receive 3 to 6 inches of
rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Please
consult your local National Weather Service office for additional
information on this system, including possible warnings.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Slow development of this disturbance is possible during
the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the tropical Atlantic.  Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart