000
ABNT20 KNHC 112349
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located about 1000 miles east-northeast of the
Leeward Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers.
Shower activity associated with this system has increased and become
a little better organized during the past several hours, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later tonight or on Monday
before upper-level winds become less conducive for development.  The
low is expected to move northwestward or north-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph over the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Disorganized shower activity continues in association with a
disturbance near the central and southeastern Bahamas. Surface
pressures remain high in the area, and there are still no signs of
a closed surface circulation.  Conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development of this disturbance while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, locally heavy rainfall
is possible over portions of the Bahamas tonight and on Monday, and
these rains are likely to spread over portions of the Florida
peninsula by Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart