000
ABNT20 KNHC 110537
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated in
association with a low pressure system located about 975 miles east
of the Lesser Antilles.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later
today or Monday while this disturbance moves northwestward to north-
northwestward over the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with an area of disturbed
weather located near the southeastern Bahamas have diminished.
There are no signs of a surface circulation associated with this
system, and conditions are not conducive for development of this
disturbance while it moves generally west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern
Gulf of Mexico continues to remain devoid of thunderstorm activity.
Upper-level winds are not favorable, and development of this system
is not expected. The low is forecast to weaken while it moves
westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph into the central Gulf
of Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain