000
ABNT20 KNHC 100509
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization
during the past few hours in association with a broad area of low
pressure located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and
then toward the northwest over the central Atlantic during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending for
several hundred miles to the north of Puerto Rico and the northern
Leeward Islands is not showing any signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for
significant development of this system while it moves generally
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of low pressure located just southwest of the lower Florida
Keys is currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity.  Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for
significant development while this system moves westward at 5 to 10
mph across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of
days.  For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brennan