000
ABNT20 KNHC 251747
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1200 miles east-northeast of the
Leeward Islands.

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
moving westward at 15 to 20 mph through the southeastern Bahamas.
Satellite wind data and reports from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft this morning indicate that the system still
lacks a closed circulation, and that the strongest winds associated
with the system likely have decreased to below tropical storm
strength. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity has become
significantly less organized during the past 24 hours. Although
upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development
during the next day or so, they could become a little more favorable
over the weekend or early next week when the wave is expected to
approach southern Florida or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to
cause flash floods and mudslides, are likely over Hispaniola
today.  This system could produce gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall over portions of the Bahamas during the next day or two.
Interests in South Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the
progress of this disturbance since it is possible that some impacts,
at a minimum heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur beginning this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown