000
ABNT20 KNHC 242332
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1100 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

A broad area of low pressure centered about 100 miles north of
Puerto Rico is producing gale-force winds over water to the north
of the Lesser Antilles.  However, satellite images indicate that
shower activity has become less organized than earlier today, and
the low continues to lack a well-defined center.  Although upper-
level winds are only marginally conducive for development, this
system could still become a tropical cyclone during the next couple
of days.  Environmental conditions have the potential to become more
conducive for development over the weekend when the system is near
the central or northwestern Bahamas.

Regardless of development, gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible
flash floods and mudslides are likely to occur over portions
of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the
southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of days.
Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices
and High Seas Forecasts from the National Weather Service for
further details.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.  Because of the large uncertainties
regarding this system's development and future track, it is too
early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur in the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida or beyond.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Blake