000
ABNT20 KNHC 212323
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona, located several hundred miles northeast of the Leeward
Islands.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is producing limited and disorganized shower activity.  Dry air near
this system is expected to inhibit significant development during
the next few days while the disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development late this week when the system
is expected to move near Hispaniola and the southeastern and central
Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with a tropical wave and an area of low
pressure located about 250 miles south-southeast of the southern
Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan