000
ABNT20 KNHC 011155
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea about 350 miles
east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to show signs
of organization.  Earlier satellite wind data indicate that the
system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and recent satellite
and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually
becoming better defined.  If this development trend continues, a
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward over the west-central Caribbean sea at 20 to
25 mph.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, are likely along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Tropical
storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon
or evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests
in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brown