000 ABNT20 KNHC 010542 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong and fast-moving tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea about 200 miles south of the Dominican Republic has increased and become significantly better organized overnight. Although this system still lacks a closed surface circulation, recent satellite-derived surface wind data and ship observations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds of 40 to 45 mph are occurring on the northern and eastern areas of the large disturbance. If this recent development trend continues, then a tropical storm could form later today when the wave moves into the central Caribbean Sea, or by early Tuesday as it approaches Jamaica and moves into the western Caribbean Sea. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are expected over Hispaniola today, and reaching Jamaica and Cuba by late Monday as the system moves westward at 20 to 25 mph. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this strong disturbance. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Stewart