000
ABNT20 KNHC 041735
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Bonnie, located about 245 miles
north-northwest of Bermuda.

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
low pressure area is forming over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
accompanied by thunderstorm activity that is currently poorly
organized.  This low is expected to gradually develop further
tonight and Sunday as it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and into the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Subsequently, the low
is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves
northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early
next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the
next several days. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven