000
ABNT20 KNHC 110513
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave several hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands have decreased during the past
few hours. This system is expected to move toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph with no significant development during the next
couple of days.  However, environmental conditions could become a
little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by early next
week. Interests in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
west of the Cape Verde Islands are associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave.  Upper-level winds are not favorable, and significant
development of this system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila