000
ABNT20 KNHC 130519
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located about 1200 miles east of the northern Leeward
Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico about 90
miles west of Naples, Florida, remains poorly organized. Upper-level
winds appear unfavorable for significant development as the system
moves generally westward during the next few days. Nevertheless,
this system will continue to be closely monitored, and an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low later today, if necessary. Locally heavy rains associated with
the low will continue over portions of southern Florida and the
Florida Keys through today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to show signs
of organization. Some development of this system is possible during
the next day or so before it moves westward or west-northwestward at
around 10 mph into an area unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has changed little in
organization during the past few hours. However, surface pressures
are low in this area, and some development could occur before the
system moves into eastern Mexico later today. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to
spread over portions of eastern Mexico today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan