000
ABNT20 KNHC 222049
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
450 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to discuss results of aircraft
reconnaissance mission.

Updated...An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
continuing to investigate the area of disturbed weather moving
over and north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.  Aircraft reports
indicate that the system is producing winds of tropical storm force
over the open waters north of those islands, although the aircraft
data and surface observations indicate that the system still lacks a
well-defined surface circulation.  Given the lack of a well-defined
surface circulation, tropical cyclone advisories are not being
initiated at this time.

The overall organization of the showers and thunderstorms has been
increasing today, but the proximity of the system to Hispaniola
could limit development tonight.  Conditions for development are
expected to be more conducive when the disturbance moves near or
over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday.  Gusty winds and heavy
rains are expected across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
tonight, and over portions of Hispaniola and the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday.  Interests in the southeastern
and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance,
since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with
little advance notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/Brennan