000
ABNT20 KNHC 210533
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands have changed little in organization during the past
several hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  The mountainous terrain of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could limit development during the first
part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to be conducive for
development early next week when the system is forecast to move near
or over the Bahamas.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of this disturbance.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown